Attempts to bring settlement in Yemen or future booby traps?

It is yet unclear what the visits by US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking and Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg to the area to restart Yemeni negotiations، extend a UN-sponsored truce، and broaden its terms in Yemen—which is about to enter its ninth year of war—will achieve، Ahram Online said.

Diplomacy carried out during the past week in Saudi Arabia، Yemen، and the Sultanate of Oman has been fascinating.

In Riyadh، the envoys had meetings with the Presidential Leadership Council، the Southern Transitional Council of Yemen's secretary general، the Saudi ambassador to Yemen، and other Saudi officials. Later، they had separate meetings with Omani officials and Mohammed Abdulsalam، the head of the Houthi negotiation mission.

The truce، which formally ended in October of last year but has subsequently continued، appears to be on the verge of being renewed. At that time، the Houthis refused to extend it and imposed restrictions، such as paying the wages of their military forces out of the oil and gas profits in the Yemeni government-controlled regions of Hadramout، Shabwa، and Marib. Additionally، they resisted transferring Hodeidah ports' earnings to a designated account for the purpose of paying port workers' salaries.

A draft deal that was just leaked to Yemeni media and confirmed by the Associated Press is on the table. This proposal، made by a regional nation، included the requirements of the Houthi group. The draft reportedly includes clauses for a comprehensive political solution، but these clauses do not address the effects of the coup and are far from the references agreed upon locally and internationally، and go towards consolidating the coup as a fait accompli in Yemen.

According to the suggested plan، the Houthi party، which governs the weaponry and a large portion of the country like Hezbollah in Lebanon، might decide the outcome of the matter. Additionally، this draft's consultations were held remote from other Yemeni actors like the Southern Transitional Council، which has been pursuing the problem in the south for almost three decades.

The Yemeni government is the agreement's weakest link at the moment. It experiences a similar loss of sovereignty over the nation as it did after the Stockholm Agreement was signed in 2018.

The deal that put an end to the fighting in Hodeidah and the combined forces loyal to it at the city gates brought no benefits to the administration. In the name of the humanitarian situation in the province، the international community has pressed to stop the battle and enter into an agreement that was only beneficial to the Houthi group.

In accordance with the provisions of the agreement، the Houthi group would withdraw from the governorate while local troops provided security، and they would transfer the proceeds from Hodeidah ports into a shared account to pay the salaries of employees in the areas they controlled.

The Houthi group، however، did not carry out the agreement and continued to rule the governorate، collecting estimated tens of billions of riyals in taxes each month from the three ports there. In the meantime، the governorate's humanitarian condition kept becoming worse. An extensive campaign of plundering against the populace of the governorate and rich agricultural regions was restarted by the group with support from Iran.

What is apparent is that this draught and consultations don't deal with the current issue in Yemen; instead، they solidify the Houthis' position and postpone sensitive topics and wars. Therefore، these initiatives are not intended to create a lasting peace but rather to sabotage Yemen's future and prolong its misery.

Since their aims are not in the best interests of the stability of this Arab nation، the interventions of regional and international nations into the problem from outside the Arab coalition، which has been managing the Yemeni issue since its start، undoubtedly add to its complexity.

Since 2014، the armed conflict in Yemen has produced one of the world’s most intractable humanitarian crises. The humanitarian situation in Yemen has led to considerable suffering across the country. According to the 2022 Yemen Humanitarian Needs Overview، an estimated 4.3 million internally-displaced-persons، 300،000 migrants، refugees and asylum seekers and millions of conflict-affected host community members are caught in the midst of an active armed conflict where the most basic resources are not available to ensure safety، dignity or protection، the UN reported.

Fighting has exacerbated high-risk coping mechanisms، stalled development gains made in the preceding years and driven the country to the brink of famine. An estimated 81 percent of Yemenis live below the poverty line، which has increased competition over resources and diminished opportunities for sustainable gains in livelihoods، according to the UN.