News agency: Yemen needs more than talks to survive‏‏

The Bloomberg news agency said that among those of the glass-half-full persuasion، the nine-month pause in hostilities in Yemen’s war is reason for hope.

The war has claimed nearly 400،000 lives، more than half of them from hunger and disease. It has spilled over Yemen’s borders، with Houthi missile and rocket strikes against critical oil infrastructure and other civilian targets in the kingdom Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It has also put the Red Sea on the verge of an environmental disaster as the rebels have blocked access to a decrepit oil supertanker، laden with 1.1 million barrels of crude، which has been rusting in anchorage off the port of Ras Isa.

“We are witnessing a potential step change in the trajectory of this eight-year-conflict،” the United Nations’ special envoy for Yemen، Hans Grundberg، said in a briefing to the UN Security Council.

The glass-half-empty view is that the back-channel talks are enabling the rebels to replenish their depleted arsenals، just as they did during a shorter truce in 2019. Since a UN-brokered ceasefire expired in early October، the Houthis have likely been receiving fresh supplies from Iran، their primary patron، Bloomberg reported.

The US Navy has seized several ships smuggling missile fuel، assault rifles and other weapons from the Islamic Republic to Yemen.

The rebels are also reinforcing their political position، most recently by announcing new rules restricting womens’ rights and cracking down on critics. The Houthis have not shown even the bare minimum of good faith by agreeing to direct talks with Yemen’s recognized government. They continue to block oil exports، depriving it of vital revenues. They are not yet allowing humanitarian agencies unrestricted access to millions of Yemenis in dire need. Nearly three-quarters of the country’s 33 million people depend on humanitarian aid، and 4.3 million are internally displaced.

The first meaningful sign of progress would be the unconditional lifting of all restrictions on humanitarian supplies. The head of the UN’s humanitarian agency has complained of Houthi interference: “This problem is particularly severe in Houthi-controlled areas، where authorities often try to compel the selection of certain contractors، restrict the travel of aid workers or otherwise seek to influence aid operations.” The government، too، has a role to play: It must remove the complicated bureaucratic requirements that hinder aid and discourage donors.

The need is urgent: According to the UN World Food Program، 17.8 million Yemenis didn’t have access to safe drinking water، sanitation، and hygiene services at the end of 2022، and 17 million were food insecure. More than 6.1 million were facing “emergency” levels of food insecurity.

Second، the Houthis must begin direct talks with other Yemeni stakeholders، including the government and other groups opposed to the rebels. The current parleys represent two degrees of separation from the ideal: The rebels are talking to the Saudis through Omani intermediaries. For any ceasefire to be credible، all the warring parties should be at the  table، Bloomberg said.

Third، the Houthis and the international community must move swiftly to secure the SFO Safer، the oil tanker in the Red Sea. The vessel has been abandoned since 2015، with the rebels using the threat of an environmental catastrophe to try and blackmail the international community. The UN has raised the $75 million required to remove the vessel’s oil — should the rusting hull spring a leak، the clean-up could cost up to $20 billion.